The 2011 first quarter looks quite similar to 2008 first quarter in some respects.
The market makes a top and then sharply falls. Then after being sideways for 4-6 weeks a rally comes. The rally soon falters and rest is history.
But the study shows that the pattern will not repeat itself. The initial analysis suggests that the signature of the move is different but the complete answer can be know in next 2 weeks i.e. by mid April.
First the charts showing the two periods.
The pattern though looks quite similar as mentioned but the key differences are:
1. The rise after the fall has been much stronger this time.
2. The volumes are better on rise for this rally.
Analyzing the 2008 pattern the index was above the 50 week SMA for 2 weeks and then in 3rd week the index closes below the 3 weeks low. The high of that week then becomes the resistance with ~20% fall coming on break of the crucial point of breakout from 50 week SMA.
The above are quite famous pattern for any down leg and is called A-B-C pattern. More details later.
Now coming to present, the Index has come out of the 50 SMA and will close above the 50 SMA for 2nd week in a row. If we consider this week as breakout point then the weeks low at 5660 is the crucial low to be maintained. For any fall to come then the next 2 weeks will be pointer.
So the 5650 (~ lows of 5660) will be the decider for the pattern.Keep watch on those levels.
The market makes a top and then sharply falls. Then after being sideways for 4-6 weeks a rally comes. The rally soon falters and rest is history.
But the study shows that the pattern will not repeat itself. The initial analysis suggests that the signature of the move is different but the complete answer can be know in next 2 weeks i.e. by mid April.
First the charts showing the two periods.
The pattern though looks quite similar as mentioned but the key differences are:
1. The rise after the fall has been much stronger this time.
2. The volumes are better on rise for this rally.
Analyzing the 2008 pattern the index was above the 50 week SMA for 2 weeks and then in 3rd week the index closes below the 3 weeks low. The high of that week then becomes the resistance with ~20% fall coming on break of the crucial point of breakout from 50 week SMA.
The above are quite famous pattern for any down leg and is called A-B-C pattern. More details later.
Now coming to present, the Index has come out of the 50 SMA and will close above the 50 SMA for 2nd week in a row. If we consider this week as breakout point then the weeks low at 5660 is the crucial low to be maintained. For any fall to come then the next 2 weeks will be pointer.
So the 5650 (~ lows of 5660) will be the decider for the pattern.Keep watch on those levels.
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