Monday, March 14, 2011

Japan: The macro effect. The effect is yet to be seen

First of all my sympathy for Japanese people and I pray to God that the situation does not worsen from here and the recovery for them to be strong.

Now what does the event reflects in numbers.
The major things are Future of Nuclear Power industry, Japanese debt, the GDP growth and the effect on their exports and the financial impact of the event.


I am pretty sure that the whole world will have to rethink of their push of Nuclear energy. Some protests have already been reported in Germany, UK and India. The major nuclear power equipment suppliers are GE, Areva, Westing house to name a few and state owned company of Russia. The Uranium suppliers from Canada and Australia can also be impacted.

The Japanese have the highest debt per capita of $ 44,722 as of Jan end. The only good thing is that about 75% of that internal debt. But that sure can limit to finance the recovery. The Govt was alrady under pressure to reduce the debt and is now faced to raise more. The BoJ has already doubled the massive quantitaive easing program to $ 120 bn.

Third the demographics of Japan is completely changed from the WW II and is now much more older. This sure can be a bit of dampener if they do not immigration some workers from Asia.

The Kobe earthquake effect was of 2.5% of the GDP. They counrty took about 2-3 months to recover from the shock itself leave the recovery.

Here is the chart of the Index at that time.

The equity market recovered after 4 months later.

I am also more worried if any Barrings bank like event this time as the index has plunged 6% in a uptrend.

The large picture macro buy would be Steel companies in China and Infra stocks in Japan. More about that later on.

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