Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Nifty Bearish Death cross: Breadth following: Is it time for a rise?

Nifty had cross of 50 SMA and 200 SMA. The last such occurrence was in March 2008.
The cross signifies the bearish momentum which has been in place for last 3 months.

Last time the cross took about 2.5 months from the peak and this time it took roughly 3.5 months from the peak.
The 200 DMA though is still rising which is the only bullish sign as of now.

Just a quick observation: The markets after the bearish cross ends higher for next one month. The previous probability is at 70%.

The Bank Nifty cross came last week which shows the banking sector weakness.

Doing such a analysis on F&O stocks shows that 75% of the stocks have bearish cross as of yesterday.

This is clearly a bearish breadth of the market. More details about this in the State of Market report later.

For futures the 5600 and 11100 are resistance for Nifty and Bank Nifty with support at 5400 and 10700 levels. Looking for more range trading here.
In time like these the ladder options strategy is a good one to adopt.

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