Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Relative Strength of US ETF's

I did the analysis of the relative strength of the sectors of US from the sectoral ETF.
The ETF’s are Basic Materials, Energy, Financials, Industrials, Technology and Consumer staples.
They were analyzed with SPY as market benchmark.


The graph shows really good observations. Some of them are:

1. XLF (Financials) drove the entire rally in SP500. They have been the strongest sector among all. This was also the same sector which was beaten down in the fall.
2. The Basic Materials ETF is also one of the strongest sector and is has never been in the –ive zone. This can also be seen in the basic materials rally from March lows.
3. The Energy sector which was laggard has suddenly moved up as oil has broken the trading zone and moved to new highs.
4. Both the XLE and XLB move +ively on the dollar deprecation trade.
5. The concern here is the drop in strength of Technology sector which has the highest weight age in SP500. The continuous underperformance by XLK can drag the SP500 down. NDX even after good results of IT companies is lagging the SP500 and Dow.
6. We also need to see the performance of Consumer staples. This sector being defensive will outperform when there is decline in index.

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