State of Market 1 Feb: Breadth is at extreme lows: No signs of buy now

State of Market report tries to capture the pulse of broad market by analyzing the stocks and other factors of market breadth. The previous issue was about the stocks diversion from 200 DMA and the breadth did pulled Nifty below 200 DMA. Link here.

The bearishness still remains at extreme though some divergence is there at the lows today. Analyzing the stocks color with last report.

Worth noting is that Markets have come down but the breadth slightly has improved since 19 Jan as seen above.

This kind of divergence generally happens in the last leg of fall although this can keep on changing, so no perfect conclusion can be drawn fro this alone. Since the above stocks are liquid ones lets see the broader market picture if there is any such divergence.

The broad market index BSE 500 does not show any kind of divergence. BSE 500 stocks vs 200 DMA.

The stocks below 200 DMA has now increased to 80%, earlier it was 67%.

Going further let me analyze  the New high and New lows and the Advance Decline graph for NSE as a whole.

 While the new highs are getting less and less the new lows are increasing. There is no divergence on that chart as well.
The Advance Decline line is downward sloping one suggesting the selling pressure is huge at every highs.

State of market 19 Jan update;Bearishness at extreme

I have not updated about the State of Market for quite some time now. The last report was bang on time as the stocks did moved lower after the update on Jan 10. Post here.

The bearishness now is at extreme as a very high %age of the stocks are in sell mode. Table below:

The ratio of  buy and sell %ages are at extreme for last 6 months which shows deep oversold levels in the not only for the index but also for the breadth of the market.

We can for sure see some rally from here which can correct this over sold levels.

Taking stock of the market breadth from BSE 200 and BSE 500 stocks.

I tried to calculate the number of stocks below 100 and 200 DMA for the above indices. The results:

Stocks of BSE 500  below 100 DMA is more than BSE 200 Index  for both the 100 and 200 DMA count. This indicates the sell off was more in midcap & small cap stocks.

Worth noting is the # of stocks below 200 DMA which is higher than 50% while Nifty has still not broken the 200 DMA. What it means? As per my understanding it shows that the market can bounce very strongly as Nifty is staying above the 200 DMA and this can sure trigger some buying in mid cap stocks.

Do write back with ur interpretions.

State of Market 10 Jan: Change in Outlook

The state of market completely reversed from Bullishness to Bearishness. See the last post.
This is consistent with the chart of Nifty which shows we are in a bearish range.

First the mode reports.

Now  lets check how are stocks w.r.t 50 and 100 DMA.

Conclusion: The state of market is Bearish with 50% of stocks in sell mode.

The number of stocks above the 100 DMA is also quite low at 21% which shows that there are less chances of Nifty pulling above 100 DMA at 5956 as the upward pull is quite less.

Also note the difference between Stocks above 50 DMA and above 100 DMA which is just 2%. This shows that bullishness is in very selected pockets.

Nifty in Regression channels.

This indicates the current trend as per the regression from last peak is down. Consistent with our state of Market.