Tuesday, January 4, 2011

China SHCOMP something is cooking here

China has been more in news for bearish factors than bullish as every rate hike as preceded a decline in global equity markets.
The index has been one of the most laggard in BRIC's indices.

But there is something very unusual happening in the SHCOMP index.
The volumes have made new highs in last quarter  and then declined to average levels.
The chart shows that volumes have been highest in last 4 years even higher than 2007 peak.



Rising volume with rising price is the bets indicator for further bullishness and that has happened in the marked areas of chart.  The worrying factor is the sudden decline in volumes after the spurt. It shows no follow on.

Also this time the index gave most of the gains and is now trading at the supporting trendline.
All this indicates reduced interest at the prices above 3000 levels.

Strategy from here:
If the index maintains the 2770 levels which is trendline support then we can see new highs above 3200 levels and if it breaks the 2770 levels then 2200 is a possibility.

Another possibility is within range of 2770 and 2900 levels. Thats where no major trading can be done.

I feel range bound has higher possibility from here than the straight breakout.

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