Monday, February 7, 2011

Nifty IV and HV: Not painting good picture

Nifty IV and 10 Day Historical Volatility are above 20 levels.

Both of them staying above the average levels indicates the fear in market and is leading to lot of protection buying. This is evident in the PCR ratio and the Put build up at 5400 levels.

This high levels of volatility is only a recent event and does suggest some shift happening in market.


The Indian VIX is also trading at the upper range of last 6 months. The index has resistance at 25 levels if that is crossed then we can see more and more volatility with sudden reversals.

For all this the crucial level is 5320. ??????  Yeah 5320 as the average price of the 5400 puts is Rs 80  so put writers will be in loss at break of  (5400-80) = 5320 levels.

Watch any close below that.

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