Thursday, February 10, 2011

State of Market: New lows at extreme

Last State of Market report on 1st Feb (Link here) was about the increasing selling pressure with a little divergence.

In this edition the divergence is gone and the New lows has been increasing day by day.

First the liquid F&O stocks analysis. The color of the stocks indicate that the whole market has just one color which is red. The readings are:


These are new levels which are generally hit in bear market sell offs.

Going further to BSE 500 index the story is same.

The number of stocks below the 200 DMA are 90% which was 80% on 1st Feb. 

No respite here. Selloff is in the broad market also.
But this figure does not tell us completely if we have hit the oversold levels as the trend is towards bearishness so the broad market would follow also.

Same logic goes for RSI and macd also as in the bear phase the bands of the indicator changes and it would not be good to consider RSI below 30 as oversold.
Checking the New highs / New lows ratio for NSE exchange as whole:




So lets see the parameters based on the standard deviation of the price which is the best given the current circumstances.

As of now there are 61% of BSE 500 Index stocks trading below their 2 Standard Deviation price.

All of the above points to bearishness and for sure the change in larger trend to bearishness.


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