Friday, February 11, 2011

Charting the Emerging Markets path

Emerging markets have been in focus a lot in this decade. They should be as the last decade returns have been spectacular. Tracking from 2003 onwards they have outperformed the SPX index by 3 times in returns.
Their ETF's are hugely popular in US with the key emerging market ETF being in top 10 in NYSE ETF.

Coming to Emerging Market ETF there are signs of weakness which should matter a lot at this juncture. The US index is hitting new highs so the investors as the buying more of their home equities which is getting reflected in the outflows in emerging markets.

The relative ratio chart:

The uptrend breakout in the ratio has come in 2011 just when the US equities has their one of the best January.

This is reflected in the chart of ETF in which the key signals are highlighted.


The top inside the bands in early Jan, increase in volumes on down days, crossover of 20 and 50 DMA and now break of lower band while bands are sloping down.

The support is at 44 levels which the ETF should hold for the bullishness to continue.
Just have a look at the key emerging market indices here. Follow up of the BRICS chart link here.


Only Taiwan and Russia are holding the 50 DMA as of now.



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