Dow Theory: Sign of caution or Crude effect

The latest signal from Dow theory is of caution. The last sign was of bullishness when Indu was at 11250 levels. Post here.

Now the Transports has broken the 50 DMA and has last swing high below 50 DMA while the Industrials INDU is trading above the 50 DMA. Chart:

While this could be the effect of crude as Transport companies use crude as their primary input and is there main cost. If crude stays above 90 levels then for sure it could have some effect on the Industrial index also as crude is used in every aspect of life which could for sure increase the inflation. More discussion can lead to debate here.So lets see charts.

The second way we can look at this is that divergence can be a buying point for Transports as Industrials is still at new highs. For that lets see how the broader US indices are telling us.

Not much of signs of caution in Midcap and smallcap indices.

Crude has moved to new highs though failed to cross the resistance there. The structure is still bullish of crude.

This all could be attributed to Egypt effect which lead to fresh highs in commodities. Reuters commodities index CRB broke to fresh weekly highs. Link here.